PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez

Sports→TennisSettlement: Sebastian BaezLiquidity: $788.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $270.3KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez
0.0¢
Marcos Giron payout
100.0¢
Sebastian Baez payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:127 trades$103.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 29 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marcos Giron · $6.1K net·6 wallets·$12.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSebastian Baez$13.8K@ 83¢·Luzzzer

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Sebastian Baez. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marcos Giron and Sebastian Baez in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcos Giron' if Marcos Giron advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Marcos Giron. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 29m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 29m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Marcos Giron@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Marcos Giron DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $8.8K → $1.3K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marcos Giron; negative values favor Sebastian Baez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarcos Giron · $21.1K
6hMarcos Giron · $18.3K
24hMarcos Giron · $18.3K

Marcos Giron price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marcos Giron price. Sebastian Baez fills are converted to the complementary Marcos Giron probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h42.8¢▼ below by 42.8pp
VWAP 7d42.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Marcos Giron price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$10.3K
85¢
$0
80¢
$4.2K
75¢
$3.8K
70¢
$23
65¢
$5.2K
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.4K
50¢
$16.7K
45¢
$18.7K
40¢
$41
35¢
$4.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$5.7K
20¢
$4.1K
15¢
$20.3K
10¢
$764
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$9.6K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarcos Giron$11.8K@ 50.0¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLSebastian Baez$13.8K@ 82.9¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: FlyQuest vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$563.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$515.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
26.5¢$460.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$424.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
42.5¢$422.7Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$307.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$305.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LuzzzerSebastian Baez$12.5K
BUY VWAP 44.4¢·2 fills
LuzzzerMarcos Giron$11.8K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.