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Villena: Philip Henning vs Maks Kasnikowski

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $5.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $80.4KEvent: Villena: Philip Henning vs Maks Kasnikowski
76.5¢
Philip Henning
23.5¢
Maks Kasnikowski
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$13.9K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 144 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maks Kasnikowski · $5.5K net·3 wallets·$5.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaks Kasnikowski$3.5K@ 62¢·0xf12f…b30f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$901
tracked
$13.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: Maks Kasnikowski · $5.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 144 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Philip Henning and Maks Kasnikowski in the Villena, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Philip Henning' if Philip Henning advances against Maks Kasnikowski. This market will resolve to 'Maks Kasnikowski' if Maks Kasnikowski advances against Philip Henning. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Philip Henning; negative values favor Maks Kasnikowski. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPhilip Henning · $0
6hPhilip Henning · $901
24hMaks Kasnikowski · $11.4K

Philip Henning price VWAP

Volume-weighted Philip Henning price. Maks Kasnikowski fills are converted to the complementary Philip Henning probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current76.5¢
VWAP 24h47.8¢▲ above by 28.7pp
VWAP 7d47.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Philip Henning price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.0K
75¢
← now
$421
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$7.4K
40¢
$1.6K
35¢
$3.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.