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Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $70.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $572.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
79.5¢
FURIA
20.5¢
Aurora Gaming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:197 trades$246.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 42s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA · $13.5K net·15 wallets·$15.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$37.6K@ 46¢·CORGI8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW FURIA SETUP
What the tape says

FURIA pressure: $27.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$27.4K
6h
−$15.8K
tracked
$246.7K

15 verified profitable wallets: FURIA · $13.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 67

Since latest large flow: -24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FURIA or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 21:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Aurora Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against FURIA.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between FURIA and Aurora Gaming in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against FURIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 6, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f2 linked markets · $27.1K gross
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $20.4K gross
PS0032 linked markets · $13.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora Gaming44m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 46.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY FURIA@ 55.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $10.0K → $3.0K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFURIA · $27.4K
6hAurora Gaming · $15.8K
24hFURIA · $30.9K

FURIA price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary FURIA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current79.5¢
VWAP 24h55.3¢▲ above by 24.2pp
VWAP 7d55.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.9K
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$23.9K
55¢
$90.6K
50¢
$122.8K
45¢
$3.4K
40¢
$2.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$19.1K@ 46.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$15.0K@ 46.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$37.6K@ 46.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYFURIA$10.0K@ 55.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYFURIA$26.2K@ 54.0¢
Ancient-Strike0xc9ae…b9e0
🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CORGI8Aurora Gaming$52.6K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·2 fills
Ancient-StrikeFURIA$26.2K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
juice-fruitAurora Gaming$19.1K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49FURIA$13.5K
BUY VWAP 56.7¢·5 fills
MeiGuNiuBiFURIA$10.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462FURIA$10.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.