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Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Nicolas Villalon

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $16.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $61.5KEvent: Antofagasta: Joaquin Aguilar vs Nicolas Villalon
100.0¢
Joaquin Aguilar
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$6.1K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 255 min agoofficial metadata 25s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJoaquin Aguilar$1.9K@ 96¢·UpTheBlues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$3.7K
tracked
$6.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Joaquin Aguilar · $4.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 255 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Nicolas Villalon in the Antofagasta, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Nicolas Villalon. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Villalon' if Nicolas Villalon advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Joaquin Aguilar; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJoaquin Aguilar · $0
6hJoaquin Aguilar · $3.7K
24hJoaquin Aguilar · $3.7K

Joaquin Aguilar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Joaquin Aguilar price. NO fills are converted to the complementary Joaquin Aguilar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h96.7¢▲ above by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d96.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Joaquin Aguilar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.