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Braga: Zsombor Piros vs Elmer Moeller

● quote 31s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $341.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $345.9KEvent: Braga: Zsombor Piros vs Elmer Moeller
1.0¢
Zsombor Piros
99.9¢
Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly10Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:108 trades$132.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Zsombor Piros · $1.1K net·7 wallets·$15.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYZsombor Piros$13.6K@ 50¢·xabidaking

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$399
6h
+$49.0K
tracked
$132.5K

7 verified profitable wallets: Zsombor Piros · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 52 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Zsombor Piros and Elmer Moeller in the Braga, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zsombor Piros' if Zsombor Piros advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Zsombor Piros. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Elmer Moeller UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $65.2K → $16.4K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Zsombor Piros; negative values favor Elmer Moeller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hZsombor Piros · $399
6hZsombor Piros · $49.0K
24hZsombor Piros · $58.0K

Zsombor Piros price VWAP

Volume-weighted Zsombor Piros price. Elmer Moeller fills are converted to the complementary Zsombor Piros probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h59.2¢▼ below by 58.2pp
VWAP 7d59.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Zsombor Piros price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$5.1K
85¢
$13.5K
80¢
$25.3K
75¢
$11.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$9.0K
60¢
$11.3K
55¢
$5.3K
50¢
$17.7K
45¢
$4.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$5.2K
30¢
$3.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$3.6K
15¢
$8.7K
10¢
$2
5¢
$29
0¢
← now
$8.7K

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYZsombor Piros$13.6K@ 50.3¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYZsombor Piros$11.6K@ 84.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseZsombor Piros$14.0K
BUY VWAP 77.4¢·3 fills
redvinnyZsombor Piros$13.7K
BUY VWAP 87.9¢·4 fills
xabidakingZsombor Piros$13.6K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.