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Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 13 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $11.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group C
63.5¢
Astralis
36.5¢
Sashi Esport
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$2.9K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSashi Esport$1.4K@ 33¢·acorp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$179
6h
−$1.5K
tracked
$2.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Sashi Esport · $1.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • •Less than 12h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis wins 2 or more maps than Sashi Esport in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sashi Esport".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Opening match between Astralis and Sashi Esport in the Stake Pulse Beat III Group C, initially scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis wins 2 or more maps than Sashi Esport in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sashi Esport". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $25.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Astralis; negative values favor Sashi Esport. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSashi Esport · $179
6hSashi Esport · $1.5K
24hSashi Esport · $2.9K

Astralis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Astralis price. Sashi Esport fills are converted to the complementary Astralis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current63.5¢
VWAP 24h66.4¢▼ below by 2.9pp
VWAP 7d66.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Astralis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.8K
60¢
← now
$179
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.