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Spread: Western Kentucky (-8.5)

● quote 12s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $14.6KEvent: Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston
40.5¢
Western Kentucky
59.5¢
Sam Houston
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection95Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$6.4K trackedsource coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 15s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Western Kentucky · $4.5K net·3 wallets·$4.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWestern Kentucky$2.4K@ 50¢·iDARKenjoyer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Western Kentucky pressure: $6.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.1K
6h
+$6.1K
tracked
$6.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: Western Kentucky · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Western Kentucky or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Western Kentucky" if Western Kentucky win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sam Houston".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 14 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Western Kentucky" if Western Kentucky win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sam Houston". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TAIWANNUMBERONE2 linked markets · $76.4K gross
Mastermoney6 linked markets · $45.2K gross
iDARKenjoyer2 linked markets · $32.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Western Kentucky; negative values favor Sam Houston. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWestern Kentucky · $6.1K
6hWestern Kentucky · $6.1K
24hWestern Kentucky · $6.1K

Western Kentucky price VWAP

Volume-weighted Western Kentucky price. Sam Houston fills are converted to the complementary Western Kentucky probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h50.4¢▼ below by 9.9pp
VWAP 7d50.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Western Kentucky price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$6.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.