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Spread: Appalachian State (-1.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $8.2KEvent: Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina
50.0¢
Appalachian State
50.0¢
Coastal Carolina
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$4.1K trackedsource coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 749 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAppalachian State$4.1K@ 52¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$4.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Appalachian State · $4.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 749 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachian State win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Coastal Carolina".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 16 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachian State win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Coastal Carolina". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $9.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Appalachian State; negative values favor Coastal Carolina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAppalachian State · $0
6hAppalachian State · $0
24hAppalachian State · $4.1K

Appalachian State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Appalachian State price. Coastal Carolina fills are converted to the complementary Appalachian State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h51.6¢▼ below by 1.6pp
VWAP 7d51.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Appalachian State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$4.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.