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North Carolina vs. Duke

● quote 42s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $21.1KEvent: North Carolina vs. Duke
42.5¢
North Carolina
57.5¢
Duke
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$8.5K trackedsource coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1007 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNorth Carolina$8.5K@ 41¢·mooseborzoii

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$8.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: North Carolina · $8.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 1007 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "North Carolina" if North Carolina win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Duke" if Duke win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between North Carolina and Duke, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "North Carolina" if North Carolina win the game. This market will resolve to "Duke" if Duke win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor North Carolina; negative values favor Duke. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNorth Carolina · $0
6hNorth Carolina · $0
24hNorth Carolina · $8.5K

North Carolina price VWAP

Volume-weighted North Carolina price. Duke fills are converted to the complementary North Carolina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h41.0¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d41.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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North Carolina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$8.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Duke (-3.5)
0.0¢$2.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
North Carolina vs. Duke: O/U 47.5
0.0¢$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Duke (-2.5)
0.0¢$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
North Carolina vs. Duke: O/U 45.5
0.0¢$266priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: North Carolina (-20.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: North Carolina (-3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Duke (-8.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: North Carolina (-17.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.