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Spread: Notre Dame (-10.5)

● quote 29s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 18 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $25.7KEvent: Notre Dame vs. BYU
49.5¢
Notre Dame
50.5¢
BYU
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$11.8K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 37s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBYU$11.9K@ 52¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$3
tracked
$11.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: BYU · $32.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.
  • •Less than 18h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game by 11 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "BYU".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 17 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "BYU". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Notre Dame; negative values favor BYU. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNotre Dame · $0
6hNotre Dame · $3
24hBYU · $11.8K

Notre Dame price VWAP

Volume-weighted Notre Dame price. BYU fills are converted to the complementary Notre Dame probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d48.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Notre Dame price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$3
45¢
← now
$32.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBYU$11.8K@ 51.0¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYBYU$11.9K@ 51.6¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoBYU$32.9K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.