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LoL: Disguised vs Maryville University - Game 4 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $158.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $151.5KEvent: LoL: Disguised vs Maryville University (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs
0.1¢
Disguised
100.0¢
Maryville University
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:109 trades$17.1K trackedsource coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 105 min agoofficial metadata 20s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maryville University · $6.3K net·14 wallets·$8.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaryville University$2.7K@ 99¢·Future-Tarot-Trader

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$7.2K
tracked
$17.1K

14 verified profitable wallets: Maryville University · $6.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 105 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win Game 4 against Maryville University.

•This market will resolve to "Maryville University" if Maryville University win Game 4 against Disguised.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Disguised and Maryville University in the LCS Promotion Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win Game 4 against Maryville University. This market will resolve to "Maryville University" if Maryville University win Game 4 against Disguised. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h2 linked markets · $38.5K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $14.9K gross
Future-Tarot-Trader4 linked markets · $8.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Maryville University UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $213 → $21.4K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Disguised; negative values favor Maryville University. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDisguised · $0
6hMaryville University · $7.2K
24hMaryville University · $7.2K

Disguised price VWAP

Volume-weighted Disguised price. Maryville University fills are converted to the complementary Disguised probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h27.2¢▼ below by 27.1pp
VWAP 7d27.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Disguised price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.0K
50¢
$2.5K
45¢
$898
40¢
$4.8K
35¢
$318
30¢
$453
25¢
$102
20¢
$161
15¢
$166
10¢
$2
5¢
$145
0¢
← now
$6.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.