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Spread: Saints (-3.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $109.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.2KEvent: Steelers vs. Saints

Indicative prices · 17s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

29.5¢
Saints
70.5¢
Steelers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$57.9K trackedsource coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 112 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Steelers · $31.7K net·3 wallets·$31.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSteelers$9.5K@ 72¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$21.8K
tracked
$57.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: Steelers · $31.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 112 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Saints" if the Saints win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Steelers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Steelers and Saints, scheduled for October 25 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Saints" if the Saints win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Steelers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo4 linked markets · $18.3K gross
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $14.0K gross
0x418d…88a32 linked markets · $11.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Saints; negative values favor Steelers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSaints · $0
6hSteelers · $21.8K
24hSteelers · $21.8K

Saints price VWAP

Volume-weighted Saints price. Steelers fills are converted to the complementary Saints probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h28.36¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d28.36¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Saints price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$57.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 44.5
43.5¢$431.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Steelers vs. Saints
59.5¢$124.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
44.5¢$9.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 42.5
52.5¢$8.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5
40.5¢$5.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Steelers (-2.5)
54.5¢$4.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Saints (-1.5)
37.0¢$303priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Steelers (-21.5)
—$69priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardSteelers$24.0K
BUY VWAP 71.62¢·5 fills
0xbc43…96d3Saints$18.1K
BUY VWAP 28.63¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.