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China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Nikola Bartunkova

● quote 28s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $113.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $78.2KEvent: China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Nikola Bartunkova
70.5¢
Karolina Muchova
29.5¢
Nikola Bartunkova
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$35.3K trackedsource coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 72 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karolina Muchova · $16.5K net·2 wallets·$16.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKarolina Muchova$8.1K@ 69¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$3.9K
tracked
$35.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Karolina Muchova · $16.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 72 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-15 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Muchova and Nikola Bartunkova in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Muchova' if Karolina Muchova advances against Nikola Bartunkova. This market will resolve to 'Nikola Bartunkova' if Nikola Bartunkova advances against Karolina Muchova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karolina Muchova; negative values favor Nikola Bartunkova. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKarolina Muchova · $0
6hKarolina Muchova · $3.9K
24hKarolina Muchova · $13.5K

Karolina Muchova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karolina Muchova price. Nikola Bartunkova fills are converted to the complementary Karolina Muchova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.5¢
VWAP 24h69.5¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d69.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karolina Muchova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$10.8K
65¢
$24.5K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Karolina Muchova$11.1K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.