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LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $188.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $313.6KEvent: LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
100.0¢
⁠Movistar KOI Fénix
0.1¢
TLN Pirates
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly62Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$87.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:TLN Pirates · $4.8K net·13 wallets·$8.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELL⁠Movistar KOI Fénix$15.6K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

TLN Pirates pressure: $1.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.6K
6h
−$30.4K
tracked
$87.5K

13 verified profitable wallets: TLN Pirates · $4.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from TLN Pirates or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 22:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "⁠Movistar KOI Fénix" if ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix win Game 2 against TLN Pirates.

•This market will resolve to "TLN Pirates" if TLN Pirates win Game 2 against ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 3 match between ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix and TLN Pirates in the EMEA Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "⁠Movistar KOI Fénix" if ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix win Game 2 against TLN Pirates. This market will resolve to "TLN Pirates" if TLN Pirates win Game 2 against ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $58.1K gross
vtcchampion523 linked markets · $34.9K gross
BBQChickenisthebesttt3 linked markets · $19.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: TLN Pirates DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $259 → $412 · 1s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix; negative values favor TLN Pirates. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTLN Pirates · $1.6K
6hTLN Pirates · $30.4K
24hTLN Pirates · $31.8K

⁠Movistar KOI Fénix price VWAP

Volume-weighted ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix price. TLN Pirates fills are converted to the complementary ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h89.9¢▲ above by 10.1pp
VWAP 7d89.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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⁠Movistar KOI Fénix price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$68.2K
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.9K
80¢
$0
75¢
$238
70¢
$375
65¢
$0
60¢
$6.2K
55¢
$5.4K
50¢
$135
45¢
$266
40¢
$2.5K
35¢
$839
30¢
$646
25¢
$0
20¢
$18
15¢
$746
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELL⁠Movistar KOI Fénix$11.7K@ 99.9¢
vtcchampion520xc69b…2076
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELL⁠Movistar KOI Fénix$12.5K@ 99.9¢
BBQChickenisthebesttt0x1660…5598
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELL⁠Movistar KOI Fénix$15.6K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUY⁠Movistar KOI Fénix$12.7K@ 97.3¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46h⁠Movistar KOI Fénix$14.6K
BUY VWAP 96.1¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.