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Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas

● quote 454 min ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 20 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas
70.0¢
Fenerbahce
30.0¢
Zalgiris Kaunas
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$141 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 511 min agoofficial metadata 664 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$141

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 454 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 511 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 664 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 17:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/
Outcome meaning

•If the Fenerbahce win, the market will resolve to "Fenerbahce".

•If the Zalgiris Kaunas win, the market will resolve to "Zalgiris Kaunas".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Euroleague basketball game, scheduled for October 13 at 1:45PM ET: If the Fenerbahce win, the market will resolve to "Fenerbahce". If the Zalgiris Kaunas win, the market will resolve to "Zalgiris Kaunas". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Fenerbahce; negative values favor Zalgiris Kaunas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFenerbahce · $0
6hFenerbahce · $0
24hZalgiris Kaunas · $141

Fenerbahce price VWAP

Volume-weighted Fenerbahce price. Zalgiris Kaunas fills are converted to the complementary Fenerbahce probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.0¢
VWAP 24h72.0¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d72.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Fenerbahce price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$141
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.