PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?

● quote 1 min ago
Crypto→Token LaunchCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $21.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $122.3KEvent: Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___?

Indicative prices · 1 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.3¢
YES
0.7¢
NO
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$65.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 43s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$12.1K@ 100¢·999ssf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $7.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.9K
6h
+$41.7K
tracked
$65.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $11.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 99.7¢4h ago
15m STALLED -0.7pp1h STALLED -0.5pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $34 → $17.9K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $7.9K
6hYES · $41.7K
24hYES · $39.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.3¢
VWAP 24h98.49¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d79.26¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$60.4K
90¢
$1.4K
85¢
$3.1K
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$101
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$3.7K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$3.0K
15¢
$7.8K
10¢
$7.0K
5¢
$2.6K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$12.1K@ 99.67¢
999ssf0xbd43…dbba
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 99.0¢
Nik-0x9e80…f694
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
99.85¢$41.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?
99.85¢$171.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?
0.15¢$170.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 29?
11.4¢$161.3Kpriority81Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 29?
99.95¢$150.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October?
0.8¢$123.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?
5.5¢$116.1Kpriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
1.25¢$114.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

999ssfYes$29.5K
BUY VWAP 99.65¢·5 fills
Nik-Yes$11.4K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.