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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima

Sports→TennisSettlement: Brandon NakashimaLiquidity: $280.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $438.5KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima
0.0¢
Matteo Berrettini payout
100.0¢
Brandon Nakashima payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:133 trades$206.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Brandon Nakashima · $3.9K net·13 wallets·$27.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBrandon Nakashima$18.9K@ 100¢·Luzzzer

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Brandon Nakashima. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Matteo Berrettini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 14m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 14m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Brandon Nakashima@ 99.9¢48m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Brandon Nakashima UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $44.2K → $46.7K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Berrettini; negative values favor Brandon Nakashima. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBrandon Nakashima · $598
6hMatteo Berrettini · $11.1K
24hMatteo Berrettini · $6.0K

Matteo Berrettini price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Berrettini price. Brandon Nakashima fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Berrettini probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h26.7¢▼ below by 26.7pp
VWAP 7d26.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matteo Berrettini price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.2K
50¢
$3.0K
45¢
$55.7K
40¢
$22.4K
35¢
$9.1K
30¢
$11.9K
25¢
$11.6K
20¢
$1.5K
15¢
$8.0K
10¢
$0
5¢
$10.6K
0¢
← now
$69.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBrandon Nakashima$18.9K@ 99.9¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatteo Berrettini$10.5K@ 47.9¢
Polyplayer140xba76…e0d7
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMatteo Berrettini$14.2K@ 45.0¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x760f…326aMatteo Berrettini$14.2K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
Polyplayer14Matteo Berrettini$10.5K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.