PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

● quote 22s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $276.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $421.7KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.1¢
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
100.0¢
Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets36Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:307 trades$166.7K trackedsource coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Felix Auger-Aliassime · $14.5K net·18 wallets·$40.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$23.0K@ 80¢·beeemw

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Felix Auger-Aliassime pressure: $45.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$45.9K
6h
−$90.8K
tracked
$166.7K

18 verified profitable wallets: Felix Auger-Aliassime · $14.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Felix Auger-Aliassime or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Felix Auger-Aliassime UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $57.8K → $8.1K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Camilo Ugo Carabelli; negative values favor Felix Auger-Aliassime. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $45.9K
6hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $90.8K
24hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $89.4K

Camilo Ugo Carabelli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Camilo Ugo Carabelli price. Felix Auger-Aliassime fills are converted to the complementary Camilo Ugo Carabelli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.6¢▼ below by 20.6pp
VWAP 7d20.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Camilo Ugo Carabelli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.5K
40¢
$9.4K
35¢
$23.8K
30¢
$17.5K
25¢
$8.0K
20¢
$32.3K
15¢
$3.7K
10¢
$23.8K
5¢
$16.8K
0¢
← now
$29.0K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$23.0K@ 79.9¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$424.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$307.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$305.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$296.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Ipswich Town win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$275.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10?
54.5¢$261.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.3¢$242.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beeemwFelix Auger-Aliassime$23.0K
BUY VWAP 79.9¢·1 fill
coinlaundryFelix Auger-Aliassime$14.0K
BUY VWAP 98.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.