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Paris Basketball vs. Virtus Bologna

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $27.8KEvent: Paris Basketball vs. Virtus Bologna
59.5¢
Paris Basketball
40.5¢
Virtus Bologna
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$10.2K trackedsource coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Paris Basketball · $14 net·2 wallets·$14 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVirtus Bologna$5.3K@ 42¢·fraagen

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Paris Basketball pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.6K
6h
+$2.6K
tracked
$10.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Paris Basketball · $14 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Paris Basketball or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/
Outcome meaning

•If the Paris Basketball win, the market will resolve to "Paris Basketball".

•If the Virtus Bologna win, the market will resolve to "Virtus Bologna".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Euroleague basketball game, scheduled for October 14 at 2:45PM ET: If the Paris Basketball win, the market will resolve to "Paris Basketball". If the Virtus Bologna win, the market will resolve to "Virtus Bologna". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Paris Basketball; negative values favor Virtus Bologna. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hParis Basketball · $2.6K
6hParis Basketball · $2.6K
24hVirtus Bologna · $4.9K

Paris Basketball price VWAP

Volume-weighted Paris Basketball price. Virtus Bologna fills are converted to the complementary Paris Basketball probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h58.5¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d58.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Paris Basketball price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$14
55¢
← now
$10.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paris Basketball vs. Virtus Bologna: O/U 179.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.