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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $279.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $750.4KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik
16.5¢
Francisco Cerundolo
83.5¢
Jakub Mensik
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:196 trades$335.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francisco Cerundolo · $32.6K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$72.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJakub Mensik$42.7K@ 55¢·0x4f53…67d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Jakub Mensik SETUP
What the tape says

Jakub Mensik pressure: $58.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$58.2K
6h
−$83.2K
tracked
$335.1K

11 verified profitable wallets: Francisco Cerundolo · $32.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: -22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jakub Mensik or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Cerundolo and Jakub Mensik in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Jakub Mensik. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Francisco Cerundolo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Francisco Cerundolo@ 39.0¢21m ago
15m INVALIDATED -29.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Jakub Mensik22m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Jakub Mensik22m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Jakub Mensik@ 49.0¢31m ago
15m CONFIRMED +36.0pp
Latest book event: Jakub Mensik DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $363 → $16.7K · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francisco Cerundolo; negative values favor Jakub Mensik. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJakub Mensik · $58.2K
6hJakub Mensik · $83.2K
24hJakub Mensik · $78.8K

Francisco Cerundolo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francisco Cerundolo price. Jakub Mensik fills are converted to the complementary Francisco Cerundolo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.5¢
VWAP 24h35.0¢▼ below by 18.5pp
VWAP 7d35.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francisco Cerundolo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$7.7K
55¢
$5.8K
50¢
$4.5K
45¢
$133.2K
40¢
$39.0K
35¢
$11.1K
30¢
$1.1K
25¢
$25.8K
20¢
$26.9K
15¢
← now
$34.3K
10¢
$45.7K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJakub Mensik$20.0K@ 86.0¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—13 minutes ago
SELLJakub Mensik$25.8K@ 71.2¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYFrancisco Cerundolo$18.1K@ 45.9¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—23 minutes ago
BUYJakub Mensik$12.7K@ 55.0¢0x4f53…67d3🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYJakub Mensik$31.1K@ 55.0¢0x4f53…67d3🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYJakub Mensik$42.7K@ 54.9¢0x4f53…67d3🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYJakub Mensik$14.3K@ 81.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4f53…67d3Jakub Mensik$86.5K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·3 fills
fkcvffcjtFrancisco Cerundolo$43.9K
BUY VWAP 44.4¢·5 fills
tennischampJakub Mensik$22.1K
BUY VWAP 80.5¢·4 fills
hurricanJakub Mensik$20.0K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.