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Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)

● quote 295 min ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.6KEvent: AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica - More Markets
50.5¢
Sport Lisboa e Benfica
49.5¢
AS Omónoia Leukosías
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$813 trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 214 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sport Lisboa e Benfica · $736 net·3 wallets·$736 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$32
tracked
$813

3 verified profitable wallets: Sport Lisboa e Benfica · $736 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 295 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 214 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Sport Lisboa e Benfica" if Sport Lisboa e Benfica win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "AS Omónoia Leukosías".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for October 22 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sport Lisboa e Benfica" if Sport Lisboa e Benfica win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "AS Omónoia Leukosías". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferdinand22 linked markets · $104 gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $66 gross
0x63ff…a9bb2 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sport Lisboa e Benfica; negative values favor AS Omónoia Leukosías. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSport Lisboa e Benfica · $0
6hAS Omónoia Leukosías · $32
24hSport Lisboa e Benfica · $709

Sport Lisboa e Benfica price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sport Lisboa e Benfica price. AS Omónoia Leukosías fills are converted to the complementary Sport Lisboa e Benfica probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h47.3¢▲ above by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d47.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sport Lisboa e Benfica price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$72
45¢
$741
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5
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AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 7.5
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Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-5.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5
96.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.