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Heat vs. Magic

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $25.0KEvent: Heat vs. Magic
33.5¢
Heat
66.5¢
Magic
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$10.8K trackedsource coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Heat · $24 net·2 wallets·$37 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagic$2.0K@ 61¢·MAGATheeStallion

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Heat pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.2K
6h
−$1.7K
tracked
$10.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Heat · $24 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 52

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Heat or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat".

•If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 16 at 7:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
iWasEnough2 linked markets · $12 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Heat; negative values favor Magic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHeat · $2.2K
6hMagic · $1.7K
24hMagic · $2.8K

Heat price VWAP

Volume-weighted Heat price. Magic fills are converted to the complementary Heat probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h37.3¢▼ below by 3.8pp
VWAP 7d37.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Heat price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.4K
35¢
$2.1K
30¢
← now
$5.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.