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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $278.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.3KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima
44.5¢
Alexander Bublik
55.5¢
Brandon Nakashima
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$115.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alexander Bublik · $6.4K net·6 wallets·$6.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexander Bublik$19.0K@ 46¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Alexander Bublik SETUP
What the tape says

Alexander Bublik pressure: $3.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.5K
6h
−$27.8K
tracked
$115.4K

6 verified profitable wallets: Alexander Bublik · $6.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alexander Bublik or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Brandon Nakashima in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Bublik@ 46.0¢43m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Alexander Bublik DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $50.1K → $23.0K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Bublik; negative values favor Brandon Nakashima. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexander Bublik · $3.5K
6hBrandon Nakashima · $27.8K
24hBrandon Nakashima · $31.1K

Alexander Bublik price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Bublik price. Brandon Nakashima fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Bublik probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h46.2¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d46.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Bublik price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$98.9K
40¢
← now
$16.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlexander Bublik$19.0K@ 46.4¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KkunnAlexander Bublik$25.2K
BUY VWAP 46.7¢·3 fills
jtwyslljyBrandon Nakashima$25.2K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·7 fills
LuzzzerBrandon Nakashima$13.5K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.