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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina

● quote 15 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $216.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $504.9KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina
99.9¢
Daniil Medvedev
0.1¢
Dalibor Svrcina
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:91 trades$261.7K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $23.9K net·7 wallets·$24.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniil Medvedev$54.0K@ 100¢·beeemw

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Dalibor Svrcina pressure: $28.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$28.9K
6h
+$111.1K
tracked
$261.7K

7 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $23.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 15 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Dalibor Svrcina or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Dalibor Svrcina in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Dalibor Svrcina. This market will resolve to 'Dalibor Svrcina' if Dalibor Svrcina advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 89.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 88.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Dalibor Svrcina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDalibor Svrcina · $28.9K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $111.1K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $118.2K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Dalibor Svrcina fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h94.2¢▲ above by 5.7pp
VWAP 7d94.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$127.3K
90¢
$29.0K
85¢
$105.4K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaniil Medvedev$54.0K@ 99.9¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$28.2K@ 99.9¢0xe27b…ec9f🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$11.7K@ 99.9¢
yupiiiiiiiii0x44a1…bd21
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$38.5K@ 89.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$30.0K@ 88.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Medvedev vs. Svrcina: Match O/U 21.5
0.1¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Svrcina: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Svrcina: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Svrcina: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Daniil Medvedev vs. Dalibor Svrcina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina
100.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Svrcina: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampDaniil Medvedev$48.4K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·6 fills
beeemwDaniil Medvedev$38.5K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill
0xe27b…ec9fDaniil Medvedev$35.4K
BUY VWAP 98.6¢·2 fills
yupiiiiiiiiiDaniil Medvedev$11.7K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesDaniil Medvedev$10.7K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.