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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp

● quote 51 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $750.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $656.6KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp
6.0¢
Arthur Fils
99.9¢
Botic van de Zandschulp
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:186 trades$245.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 66 min agoofficial metadata 53 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Botic van de Zandschulp · $59.4K net·16 wallets·$67.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBotic van de Zandschulp$31.1K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$26.1K
tracked
$245.0K

16 verified profitable wallets: Botic van de Zandschulp · $59.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +26.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 51 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 66 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 53 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 26.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Botic van de Zandschulp in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Botic van de Zandschulp. This market will resolve to 'Botic van de Zandschulp' if Botic van de Zandschulp advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf020…20f52 linked markets · $15 gross
0xd9c9…66862 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Botic van de Zandschulp2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Botic van de Zandschulp2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Botic van de Zandschulp@ 74.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Botic van de Zandschulp@ 78.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Botic van de Zandschulp UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $40.4K → $9.0K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Botic van de Zandschulp. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $0
6hBotic van de Zandschulp · $26.1K
24hBotic van de Zandschulp · $25.1K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Botic van de Zandschulp fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.0¢
VWAP 24h28.2¢▼ below by 22.2pp
VWAP 7d28.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.0K
80¢
$6.8K
75¢
$8.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3
55¢
$37.9K
50¢
$11.7K
45¢
$19.3K
40¢
$50
35¢
$6.8K
30¢
$3.4K
25¢
$5.1K
20¢
$21.7K
15¢
$28.1K
10¢
$33.2K
5¢
← now
$4.9K
0¢
$56.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBotic van de Zandschulp$31.1K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLArthur Fils$14.1K@ 18.4¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYArthur Fils$10.0K@ 47.0¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Arthur Fils (-4.5) vs Botic van de Zandschulp (+4.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Zandschulp: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arthur Fils vs. Botic van de Zandschulp: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.1¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fils vs. Zandschulp: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesBotic van de Zandschulp$37.3K
BUY VWAP 68.2¢·18 fills
0x760f…326aArthur Fils$10.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.