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Jinan: Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller

● quote 1260 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Jinan: Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller
69.0¢
Tomas Machac
31.0¢
Alexandre Muller
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection82Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution42Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:3 trades$47 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$13
6h
+$13
tracked
$47

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 1260 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Alexandre Muller in the Jinan, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Alexandre Muller. This market will resolve to 'Alexandre Muller' if Alexandre Muller advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tomas Machac; negative values favor Alexandre Muller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Machac · $13
6hTomas Machac · $13
24hTomas Machac · $16

Tomas Machac price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tomas Machac price. Alexandre Muller fills are converted to the complementary Tomas Machac probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current69.0¢
VWAP 24h67.7¢▲ above by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d67.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tomas Machac price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$33
65¢
← now
$13
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Tomas Machac (-3.5) vs Alexandre Muller (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Machac vs. Muller: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Tomas Machac (-1.5) vs Alexandre Muller (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Machac vs. Muller: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tomas Machac vs. Alexandre Muller: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Machac vs. Muller: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Machac vs. Muller: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.