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Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $896.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $961.0KEvent: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
64.5¢
Vitality
35.5¢
MOUZ
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:156 trades$437.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $32.1K net·6 wallets·$41.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ$62.2K@ 35¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Vitality SETUP
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $2.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.3K
6h
+$29.9K
tracked
$437.9K

6 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $32.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 62

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against MOUZ.

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Vitality.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between Vitality and MOUZ in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Vitality. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
juice-fruit2 linked markets · $129.8K gross
0x29b5…cc6c3 linked markets · $55.2K gross
Partyarty913 linked markets · $16.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 36.0¢9m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY MOUZ@ 36.0¢12m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 35.0¢36m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Vitality@ 66.0¢36m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vitality; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $2.3K
6hVitality · $29.9K
24hVitality · $27.3K

Vitality price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vitality price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary Vitality probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h65.3¢▼ below by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d65.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vitality price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$404.8K
60¢
← now
$33.1K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVitality$27.1K@ 65.0¢0x543f…8323🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYMOUZ$15.7K@ 35.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—15 minutes ago
BUYMOUZ$40.2K@ 35.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVitality$56.9K@ 65.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVitality$37.6K@ 65.0¢
qiu30x7f73…14f1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMOUZ$62.2K@ 35.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111MOUZ$118.0K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·3 fills
juice-fruitVitality$56.9K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
qiu3Vitality$37.6K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
0x29b5…cc6cMOUZ$36.6K
BUY VWAP 33.6¢·19 fills
0x543f…8323Vitality$27.1K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
KkunnMOUZ$10.3K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·2 fills
Partyarty91Vitality$10.0K
BUY VWAP 68.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.