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UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 14 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $38.3KEvent: UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)

Indicative prices · 14s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

57.5¢
Aaron Pico
42.5¢
Losene Keita
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$18.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 89 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aaron Pico · $559 net·3 wallets·$602 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAaron Pico$14.8K@ 58¢·Raisuu

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$15.7K
tracked
$18.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Aaron Pico · $559 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 89 minutes old.
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aaron Pico; negative values favor Losene Keita. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAaron Pico · $0
6hAaron Pico · $15.7K
24hAaron Pico · $17.8K

Aaron Pico price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aaron Pico price. Losene Keita fills are converted to the complementary Aaron Pico probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h57.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d56.68¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aaron Pico price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$20.7K
50¢
$5.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAaron Pico$14.8K@ 58.0¢
Raisuu0xc4a6…4e4e
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RaisuuAaron Pico$14.8K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.