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Santa Cruz 2: Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $93.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $108.8KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli
11.5¢
Valerio Aboian
88.5¢
Franco Roncadelli
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$38.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Franco Roncadelli · $9.6K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$23.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFranco Roncadelli$11.8K@ 71¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Franco Roncadelli SETUP
What the tape says

Franco Roncadelli pressure: $7.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.9K
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$38.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: Franco Roncadelli · $9.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 57

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Franco Roncadelli or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Franco Roncadelli in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Franco Roncadelli. This market will resolve to 'Franco Roncadelli' if Franco Roncadelli advances against Valerio Aboian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Franco Roncadelli DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $76.8K → $13.0K · 66s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valerio Aboian; negative values favor Franco Roncadelli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFranco Roncadelli · $7.9K
6hValerio Aboian · $2.0K
24hValerio Aboian · $2.0K

Valerio Aboian price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valerio Aboian price. Franco Roncadelli fills are converted to the complementary Valerio Aboian probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current11.5¢
VWAP 24h36.4¢▼ below by 24.9pp
VWAP 7d36.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valerio Aboian price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$11
50¢
$159
45¢
$11.0K
40¢
$340
35¢
$301
30¢
$2.6K
25¢
$20.5K
20¢
$348
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$560
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFranco Roncadelli$11.8K@ 71.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—41 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Franco Roncadelli (-3.5) vs Valerio Aboian (+3.5)
0.0¢$19priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Valerio Aboian (-1.5) vs Franco Roncadelli (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Roncadelli: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valerio Aboian vs. Franco Roncadelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Valerio Aboian vs Franco Roncadelli
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Roncadelli: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Roncadelli: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Aboian vs. Roncadelli: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cFranco Roncadelli$11.8K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.