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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik

● quote 52s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 9 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
39.5¢
Arthur Gea
60.5¢
Jakub Mensik
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$7.1K trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Gea$2.5K@ 39¢·fastball67

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jakub Mensik pressure: $1.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.3K
6h
+$822
tracked
$7.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Jakub Mensik · $3.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jakub Mensik or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Jakub Mensik in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Jakub Mensik. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Arthur Gea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Gea; negative values favor Jakub Mensik. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJakub Mensik · $1.3K
6hArthur Gea · $822
24hArthur Gea · $822

Arthur Gea price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Gea price. Jakub Mensik fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Gea probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h38.5¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d38.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Gea price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$7.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Gea vs. Mensik: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gea vs. Mensik: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gea vs. Mensik: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gea vs. Mensik: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arthur Gea vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Gea vs. Mensik: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.