Set 1 Winner: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
1 verified profitable wallet: Karen Khachanov · $133 net over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 75% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
- •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
- •Observed tape is 111 minutes old.
- •Official market metadata is 78 minutes old.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
•This market will resolve to “Alex de Minaur” if Alex de Minaur wins the first set. It will resolve to “Karen Khachanov” if Karen Khachanov wins the first set.
Read full resolution rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Alex de Minaur” if Alex de Minaur wins the first set. It will resolve to “Karen Khachanov” if Karen Khachanov wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Alex de Minaur price VWAP
Largest holders
Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.