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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Sports→TennisSettlement: Casper RuudLiquidity: $254.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $608.1KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
100.0¢
Casper Ruud payout
0.0¢
Felix Auger-Aliassime payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:156 trades$246.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Casper Ruud · $21.9K net·17 wallets(2🐋)·$94.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$20.2K@ 22¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Casper Ruud. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 16m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 16m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x92ed…c1552 linked markets · $7 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Casper Ruud1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Casper Ruud1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Casper Ruud1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Casper Ruud1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Casper Ruud UP 10.0pp · near-book depth $34 → $20.0K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Casper Ruud; negative values favor Felix Auger-Aliassime. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCasper Ruud · $10.3K
6hCasper Ruud · $71.7K
24hCasper Ruud · $78.4K

Casper Ruud price VWAP

Volume-weighted Casper Ruud price. Felix Auger-Aliassime fills are converted to the complementary Casper Ruud probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h72.2¢▲ above by 27.8pp
VWAP 7d72.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Casper Ruud price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$24.7K
90¢
$2.3K
85¢
$28.3K
80¢
$8.2K
75¢
$60.3K
70¢
$11.0K
65¢
$64.5K
60¢
$6.9K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.5K
40¢
$36.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCasper Ruud$14.2K@ 89.3¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$20.2K@ 22.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCasper Ruud$20.0K@ 67.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCasper Ruud$10.2K@ 66.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCasper Ruud$19.8K@ 65.5¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 1 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.0¢$8.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Felix Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Casper Ruud (+1.5)
0.0¢$7.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Felix Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Casper Ruud (+1.5)
0.0¢$1.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Casper Ruud vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$896priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$434priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ruud vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢$11priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseCasper Ruud$53.1K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·4 fills
0x076d…8d4cCasper Ruud$37.9K
BUY VWAP 81.2¢·9 fills
0x2c33…0563Felix Auger-Aliassime$20.2K
BUY VWAP 22.0¢·1 fill
AnarionCasper Ruud$15.0K
BUY VWAP 79.3¢·3 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseFelix Auger-Aliassime$13.8K
BUY VWAP 25.9¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.