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Spread: Delaware (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 40 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $11.0KEvent: Missouri State vs. Delaware
43.5¢
Delaware
56.5¢
Missouri State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection91Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$1.5K trackedsource coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMissouri State$1.4K@ 46¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Missouri State pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.4K
6h
−$1.3K
tracked
$1.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Missouri State · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Missouri State or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Delaware" if Delaware win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Missouri State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 20 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Delaware" if Delaware win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Missouri State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ic4cream2 linked markets · $72.9K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $34.7K gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $12.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Delaware DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $335 → $249 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Delaware; negative values favor Missouri State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMissouri State · $1.4K
6hMissouri State · $1.3K
24hMissouri State · $1.3K

Delaware price VWAP

Volume-weighted Delaware price. Missouri State fills are converted to the complementary Delaware probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h53.9¢▼ below by 10.4pp
VWAP 7d53.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Delaware price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$10
50¢
$1.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.