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Roanne: Jakub Paul vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

● quote 271 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Roanne: Jakub Paul vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
19.5¢
Jakub Paul
80.5¢
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$428 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 166 min agoofficial metadata 135 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · $318 net·2 wallets·$318 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$413
tracked
$428

2 verified profitable wallets: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · $318 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 271 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 166 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 135 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 11:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Paul and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Roanne, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Paul' if Jakub Paul advances against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. This market will resolve to 'Nicolai Budkov Kjaer' if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer advances against Jakub Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jakub Paul; negative values favor Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJakub Paul · $0
6hNicolai Budkov Kjaer · $413
24hNicolai Budkov Kjaer · $402

Jakub Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jakub Paul price. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer fills are converted to the complementary Jakub Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h8.0¢▲ above by 11.5pp
VWAP 7d8.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jakub Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$13
15¢
← now
$1
10¢
$214
5¢
$0
0¢
$200

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Jakub Paul vs. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Kjaer: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Kjaer: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (-1.5) vs Jakub Paul (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (-4.5) vs Jakub Paul (+4.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Kjaer: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Jakub Paul vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Kjaer: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.