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Spread: LSU (-6.5)

● quote 22s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 22 hoursLiquidity: $121.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $61.3KEvent: LSU vs. Auburn
56.5¢
LSU
43.5¢
Auburn
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$33.8K tracked67% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1045 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLSU$19.9K@ 57¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$33.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: LSU · $33.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 3 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 1045 minutes old.
  • •Less than 22h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Auburn".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Auburn". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino3 linked markets · $49.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY LSU@ 57.0¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LSU; negative values favor Auburn. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLSU · $0
6hLSU · $0
24hLSU · $33.8K

LSU price VWAP

Volume-weighted LSU price. Auburn fills are converted to the complementary LSU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h56.5¢▼ below by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d56.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LSU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$33.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLSU$19.9K@ 57.0¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYLSU$10.8K@ 55.6¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 19 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: LSU (-7.5)
47.5¢$35.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-5.5)
58.5¢$3.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LSU vs. Auburn
72.5¢$171priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-14.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-16.5)
26.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-17.5)
24.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-20.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-13.5)
33.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoLSU$33.8K
BUY VWAP 56.5¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.