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Spread: Utah (-6.5)

● quote 12s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $190.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.5KEvent: Houston vs. Utah

Indicative prices · 12s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

52.5¢
Utah
47.5¢
Houston
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$36.7K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUtah$35.0K@ 53¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$32
6h
−$1.6K
tracked
$36.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Utah · $35.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 02:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Utah" if Utah win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Houston".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Utah" if Utah win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Houston". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Utah@ 53.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Utah; negative values favor Houston. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHouston · $32
6hHouston · $1.6K
24hUtah · $33.4K

Utah price VWAP

Volume-weighted Utah price. Houston fills are converted to the complementary Utah probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h52.96¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d52.96¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Utah price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$36.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUtah$35.0K@ 53.0¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 23 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Houston vs. Utah
31.5¢$23.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Utah (-7.5)
—$73priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Utah (-3.5)
—$16priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Houston (-6.5)
—$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Houston (-17.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Houston (-20.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Houston (-16.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Houston (-14.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoUtah$35.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.