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Spread: Troy (-13.5)

● quote 44s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 21 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $18.7KEvent: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Troy

Indicative prices · 44s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

46.5¢
Troy
53.5¢
Louisiana-Monroe
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$7.9K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 321 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLouisiana-Monroe$4.9K@ 50¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$7.9K
tracked
$7.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Louisiana-Monroe · $7.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 321 minutes old.
  • •Less than 21h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Troy" if Troy win the game by 14 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Louisiana-Monroe".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Troy" if Troy win the game by 14 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Louisiana-Monroe". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $11.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Troy; negative values favor Louisiana-Monroe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTroy · $0
6hLouisiana-Monroe · $7.9K
24hLouisiana-Monroe · $7.9K

Troy price VWAP

Volume-weighted Troy price. Louisiana-Monroe fills are converted to the complementary Troy probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h49.72¢▼ below by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d49.72¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Troy price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.9K
45¢
← now
$3.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Troy (-14.5)
43.5¢$7.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Louisiana-Monroe (-20.5)
—$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Louisiana-Monroe (-13.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Louisiana-Monroe (-14.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Troy
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Louisiana-Monroe (-17.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Louisiana-Monroe (-16.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Louisiana-Monroe (-10.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.