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Spread: North Texas (-4.5)

Sports→American FootballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $369Event: North Texas vs. Navy

Polymarket indicative prices · 8 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

66.0¢
North Texas
34.0¢
Navy
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$21 trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$21
6h
−$21
tracked
$21

1 verified profitable wallet: Navy · $21 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "North Texas" if North Texas win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Navy".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "North Texas" if North Texas win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Navy". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $4.7K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $3.3K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $2.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor North Texas; negative values favor Navy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNavy · $21
6hNavy · $21
24hNavy · $21

North Texas price VWAP

Volume-weighted North Texas price. Navy fills are converted to the complementary North Texas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.0¢
VWAP 24h57.5¢▲ above by 8.5pp
VWAP 7d57.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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North Texas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$21
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.