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Spread: James Madison (-12.5)

● quote 151 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $45.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.0KEvent: Georgia State vs. James Madison
45.5¢
James Madison
54.5¢
Georgia State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$2.7K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 690 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:James Madison · $50.5K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$55.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJames Madison$11.5K@ 52¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$2.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: James Madison · $50.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 151 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 690 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "James Madison" if James Madison win the game by 13 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Georgia State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "James Madison" if James Madison win the game by 13 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Georgia State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $54.8K gross
tomb24562 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY James Madison@ 53.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor James Madison; negative values favor Georgia State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJames Madison · $0
6hJames Madison · $0
24hGeorgia State · $2.7K

James Madison price VWAP

Volume-weighted James Madison price. Georgia State fills are converted to the complementary James Madison probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h48.8¢▼ below by 3.3pp
VWAP 7d51.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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James Madison price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$53.2K
45¢
← now
$2.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJames Madison$11.5K@ 52.0¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Georgia State vs. James Madison: O/U 59.5
0.0¢$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Georgia State vs. James Madison: O/U 57.5
0.0¢$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: James Madison (-10.5)
0.0¢$1.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: James Madison (-13.5)
0.0¢$319priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Georgia State vs. James Madison
0.0¢$293priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Georgia State vs. James Madison: O/U 55.5
0.0¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: James Madison (-6.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Georgia State vs. James Madison: O/U 53.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoJames Madison$53.2K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·19 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.