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Spread: Wake Forest (-9.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 21 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $12.8KEvent: Wake Forest vs. California
53.5¢
Wake Forest
46.5¢
California
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$6.7K trackedsource coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 147 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWake Forest$6.7K@ 53¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$19
tracked
$6.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Wake Forest · $9.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 147 minutes old.
  • •Less than 21h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Wake Forest" if Wake Forest win the game by 10 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "California".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 17 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Wake Forest" if Wake Forest win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "California". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Wake Forest; negative values favor California. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWake Forest · $0
6hCalifornia · $19
24hWake Forest · $6.7K

Wake Forest price VWAP

Volume-weighted Wake Forest price. California fills are converted to the complementary Wake Forest probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h53.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d52.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Wake Forest price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$9.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Wake Forest vs. California
0.0¢$125priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Spread: California (-10.5)
0.0¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Wake Forest (-4.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Spread: Wake Forest (-16.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Wake Forest (-14.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.