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Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $417.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $180.6KEvent: Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
100.0¢
Team Lynx
0.1¢
Dawn Bulls
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:175 trades$37.4K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Dawn Bulls · $4.2K net·8 wallets·$9.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Lynx$5.1K@ 100¢·GameGambleStakes

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Dawn Bulls pressure: $14.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$14.5K
6h
−$12.0K
tracked
$37.4K

8 verified profitable wallets: Dawn Bulls · $4.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Dawn Bulls or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-15 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Lynx" if Team Lynx win Game 1 against Dawn Bulls.

•This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win Game 1 against Team Lynx.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 1 match between Team Lynx and Dawn Bulls in the DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Lynx" if Team Lynx win Game 1 against Dawn Bulls. This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win Game 1 against Team Lynx. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 15, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Mrmarket3342 linked markets · $2.1K gross
BettingPartners42 linked markets · $1.7K gross
0x7462…3ac32 linked markets · $1.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Dawn Bulls DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $64 → $83 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Lynx; negative values favor Dawn Bulls. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDawn Bulls · $14.5K
6hDawn Bulls · $12.0K
24hDawn Bulls · $12.0K

Team Lynx price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Lynx price. Dawn Bulls fills are converted to the complementary Team Lynx probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h82.6¢▲ above by 17.4pp
VWAP 7d82.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Lynx price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$17.1K
90¢
$5.5K
85¢
$2.8K
80¢
$1.5K
75¢
$0
70¢
$785
65¢
$266
60¢
$17
55¢
$121
50¢
$431
45¢
$7.6K
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
$60
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.