Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
1 verified profitable wallet: Hernan Casanova · $3 net over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 66% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
•This market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna" if Juan Manuel La Serna wins by 2 or more sets than Hernan Casanova, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Hernan Casanova."
•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Juan Manuel La Serna can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Hernan Casanova."
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Hernan Casanova in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna" if Juan Manuel La Serna wins by 2 or more sets than Hernan Casanova, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Hernan Casanova." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Juan Manuel La Serna can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Hernan Casanova." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Juan Manuel La Serna price VWAP
Largest holders
Juan Manuel La Serna price Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.