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Spread: Lions (-3.5)

● quote 36s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $37.4KEvent: Vikings vs. Lions

Indicative prices · 36s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Lions
51.5¢
Vikings
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$17.7K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 84 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLions$17.7K@ 48¢·PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$17.7K
tracked
$17.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Lions · $17.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 84 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Vikings".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Vikings and Lions, scheduled for November 1 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Vikings". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Lions@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lions; negative values favor Vikings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLions · $0
6hLions · $17.7K
24hLions · $17.7K

Lions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lions price. Vikings fills are converted to the complementary Lions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h48.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d48.06¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$18.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLions$17.7K@ 48.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Vikings vs. Lions
—$177priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
—$85priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 44.5
—$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Vikings (-3.5)
—$6priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-19.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Vikings (-2.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 48.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANLions$17.7K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.