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Spread: Ravens (-20.5)

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $35.4KEvent: Ravens vs. Bills

Indicative prices · 3 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

2.95¢
Ravens
97.05¢
Bills
3.9¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution43Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:3 trades$35.0K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 99%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 100 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBills$33.0K@ 99¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$35.0K
tracked
$35.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.9¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 100 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 3.9¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Ravens" if the Ravens win the game by 21 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bills".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Ravens and Bills, scheduled for November 1 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ravens" if the Ravens win the game by 21 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bills". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0F623 linked markets · $49.4K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $40.0K gross
UpTheBlues4 linked markets · $26.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ravens; negative values favor Bills. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRavens · $0
6hBills · $35.0K
24hBills · $35.0K

Ravens price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ravens price. Bills fills are converted to the complementary Ravens probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.95¢
VWAP 24h1.0¢▲ above by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d1.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ravens price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$35.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBills$33.0K@ 99.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Bills (-13.5)
19.5¢$62.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-10.5)
24.5¢$54.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5
49.5¢$46.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ravens (-16.5)
5.8¢$34.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ravens vs. Bills
38.5¢$34.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ravens (-17.5)
5.4¢$21.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
46.5¢$7.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 52.5
—$513priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Bills$35.0K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.