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Mallorca: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Francesca Curmi

● quote 52 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $82.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $86.5KEvent: Mallorca: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Francesca Curmi
2.0¢
Marina Bassols Ribera
99.9¢
Francesca Curmi
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets28Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution27Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:48 trades$41.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 51 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marina Bassols Ribera · $2.9K net·6 wallets·$10.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesca Curmi$10.0K@ 88¢·austr

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$53
6h
+$5.5K
tracked
$41.2K

6 verified profitable wallets: Marina Bassols Ribera · $2.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 52 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 51 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marina Bassols Ribera and Francesca Curmi in the Mallorca, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marina Bassols Ribera' if Marina Bassols Ribera advances against Francesca Curmi. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Curmi' if Francesca Curmi advances against Marina Bassols Ribera. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Francesca Curmi@ 98.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Francesca Curmi UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $741 → $524 · 41s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marina Bassols Ribera; negative values favor Francesca Curmi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarina Bassols Ribera · $53
6hMarina Bassols Ribera · $5.5K
24hMarina Bassols Ribera · $5.5K

Marina Bassols Ribera price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marina Bassols Ribera price. Francesca Curmi fills are converted to the complementary Marina Bassols Ribera probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h23.6¢▼ below by 21.6pp
VWAP 7d23.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marina Bassols Ribera price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$1.6K
65¢
$1.8K
60¢
$39
55¢
$155
50¢
$5.3K
45¢
$60
40¢
$3.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.4K
20¢
$1.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$10.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$14.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancesca Curmi$10.0K@ 88.0¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

austrFrancesca Curmi$10.0K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.