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Lisbon: Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $23.3KEvent: Lisbon: Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel
0.5¢
Mathilde Lollia
99.9¢
Clara Burel
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection58Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$2.3K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Clara Burel · $114 net·3 wallets·$117 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLClara Burel$1.1K@ 100¢·austr

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Mathilde Lollia pressure: $1.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.3K
6h
+$489
tracked
$2.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: Clara Burel · $114 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Mathilde Lollia or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mathilde Lollia and Clara Burel in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathilde Lollia' if Mathilde Lollia advances against Clara Burel. This market will resolve to 'Clara Burel' if Clara Burel advances against Mathilde Lollia. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mathilde Lollia; negative values favor Clara Burel. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMathilde Lollia · $1.3K
6hMathilde Lollia · $489
24hMathilde Lollia · $489

Mathilde Lollia price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mathilde Lollia price. Clara Burel fills are converted to the complementary Mathilde Lollia probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h3.7¢▼ below by 3.2pp
VWAP 7d3.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mathilde Lollia price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$474
5¢
$498
0¢
← now
$1.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Clara Burel (-1.5) vs Mathilde Lollia (+1.5)
0.0¢$3priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lollia vs. Burel: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lollia vs. Burel: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lollia vs. Burel: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mathilde Lollia vs. Clara Burel: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lollia vs. Burel: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lollia vs. Burel: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Mathilde Lollia vs Clara Burel
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.