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Lisbon: Martha Matoula vs Guiomar Maristany

● quote 5 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $97.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $111.8KEvent: Lisbon: Martha Matoula vs Guiomar Maristany
1.5¢
Martha Matoula
99.9¢
Guiomar Maristany
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection51Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:39 trades$48.0K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Guiomar Maristany · $752 net·6 wallets·$1.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLGuiomar Maristany$23.0K@ 100¢·austr

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Martha Matoula pressure: $24.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$24.5K
6h
+$4.4K
tracked
$48.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Guiomar Maristany · $752 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +4.1pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Martha Matoula or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Martha Matoula and Guiomar Maristany in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martha Matoula' if Martha Matoula advances against Guiomar Maristany. This market will resolve to 'Guiomar Maristany' if Guiomar Maristany advances against Martha Matoula. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Guiomar Maristany@ 95.9¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.3pp1h STALLED +0.5pp
Latest book event: Guiomar Maristany UP 3.2pp · near-book depth $31.6K → $11.2K · 47s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Martha Matoula; negative values favor Guiomar Maristany. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMartha Matoula · $24.5K
6hMartha Matoula · $4.4K
24hMartha Matoula · $4.4K

Martha Matoula price VWAP

Volume-weighted Martha Matoula price. Guiomar Maristany fills are converted to the complementary Martha Matoula probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.5¢
VWAP 24h2.7¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d2.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Martha Matoula price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$62
20¢
$126
15¢
$1.3K
10¢
$2.7K
5¢
$1.5K
0¢
← now
$42.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLGuiomar Maristany$23.0K@ 99.9¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—36 minutes ago
BUYGuiomar Maristany$18.0K@ 96.8¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Guiomar Maristany (-1.5) vs Martha Matoula (+1.5)
0.0¢$2.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Martha Matoula vs. Guiomar Maristany: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$81priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matoula vs. Maristany: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Martha Matoula vs Guiomar Maristany
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matoula vs. Maristany: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matoula vs. Maristany: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Martha Matoula vs Guiomar Maristany
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matoula vs. Maristany: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

austrGuiomar Maristany$18.0K
BUY VWAP 96.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.