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Jinan: Andre Ilagan vs Yosuke Watanuki

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $26.0KEvent: Jinan: Andre Ilagan vs Yosuke Watanuki
7.5¢
Andre Ilagan
92.5¢
Yosuke Watanuki
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection61Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$8.0K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Yosuke Watanuki · $3.8K net·4 wallets·$7.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYosuke Watanuki$2.7K@ 81¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Yosuke Watanuki SETUP
What the tape says

Yosuke Watanuki pressure: $4.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.9K
6h
−$4.9K
tracked
$8.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: Yosuke Watanuki · $3.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 67

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Yosuke Watanuki or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Andre Ilagan and Yosuke Watanuki in the Jinan, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andre Ilagan' if Andre Ilagan advances against Yosuke Watanuki. This market will resolve to 'Yosuke Watanuki' if Yosuke Watanuki advances against Andre Ilagan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Andre Ilagan DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $11.1K → $3.1K · 38s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Andre Ilagan; negative values favor Yosuke Watanuki. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYosuke Watanuki · $4.9K
6hYosuke Watanuki · $4.9K
24hYosuke Watanuki · $3.1K

Andre Ilagan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Andre Ilagan price. Yosuke Watanuki fills are converted to the complementary Andre Ilagan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.5¢
VWAP 24h23.7¢▼ below by 16.2pp
VWAP 7d23.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Andre Ilagan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1
25¢
$0
20¢
$2.2K
15¢
$2.7K
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$1.4K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Ilagan vs. Watanuki: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ilagan vs. Watanuki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ilagan vs. Watanuki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Andre Ilagan vs Yosuke Watanuki
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Andre Ilagan vs Yosuke Watanuki
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ilagan vs. Watanuki: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Andre Ilagan vs. Yosuke Watanuki: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ilagan vs. Watanuki: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.