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Jinan: Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov

● quote 13s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $106.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $83.3KEvent: Jinan: Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov
100.0¢
Ilya Ivashka
0.1¢
Marat Sharipov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$28.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marat Sharipov · $122 net·8 wallets·$3.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIlya Ivashka$11.7K@ 87¢·xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
+$23.6K
tracked
$28.9K

8 verified profitable wallets: Marat Sharipov · $122 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ilya Ivashka and Marat Sharipov in the Jinan, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Marat Sharipov. This market will resolve to 'Marat Sharipov' if Marat Sharipov advances against Ilya Ivashka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Ilya Ivashka UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $142 → $74 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ilya Ivashka; negative values favor Marat Sharipov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarat Sharipov · $3
6hIlya Ivashka · $23.6K
24hIlya Ivashka · $23.6K

Ilya Ivashka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ilya Ivashka price. Marat Sharipov fills are converted to the complementary Ilya Ivashka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h70.5¢▲ above by 29.4pp
VWAP 7d70.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ilya Ivashka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$11.7K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$33
45¢
$2.3K
40¢
$9.3K
35¢
$38
30¢
$3
25¢
$505
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYIlya Ivashka$11.7K@ 87.4¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Ivashka vs. Sharipov: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$172priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Marat Sharipov (-1.5) vs Ilya Ivashka (+1.5)
0.0¢$27priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ilya Ivashka vs. Marat Sharipov: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ivashka vs. Sharipov: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ivashka vs. Sharipov: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ivashka vs. Sharipov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ivashka vs. Sharipov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseIlya Ivashka$16.7K
BUY VWAP 90.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.