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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $594.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $117.6KEvent: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3.5¢
YES
96.5¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:255 trades$24.9K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $3.2K net·7 wallets·$6.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$100.2K@ 96¢·allenzzz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$85
6h
+$716
tracked
$24.9K

7 verified profitable wallets: NO · $3.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.2¢8d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.3pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 5.5¢9d ago
15m STALLED -1.4pp1h STALLED -1.4pp6h STALLED -0.9pp24h STALLED -1.7pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.2¢9d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.7pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.2¢11d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.1pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $85
6hYES · $716
24hYES · $2.9K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.5¢
VWAP 24h3.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d4.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$7.0K
0¢
← now
$1.5M

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$13.9K@ 96.2¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$47.2K@ 96.0¢
ImJustKen0x9d84…1344
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$20.2K@ 96.0¢
End1230x8df7…36c4
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$23.6K@ 95.4¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$10.9K@ 95.4¢0xc97b…47e5🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$100.2K@ 96.1¢
allenzzz0xe749…f771
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$11.7K@ 96.1¢
4rfvpm101qaz0xdc62…1eb3
🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$46.8K@ 96.1¢
Anjun0x4337…8882
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$49.0K@ 96.1¢
Anjun0x4337…8882
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 96.3¢
koyo9220x964f…ea70
🐋—16 days ago
SELLNO$49.6K@ 95.9¢
videlake0x6ae1…1e7e
🐋—18 days ago
SELLNO$25.1K@ 96.2¢
videlake0x6ae1…1e7e
🐋—18 days ago
BUYNO$25.8K@ 96.2¢
randomgo0x51df…458f
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$41.5K@ 96.2¢
randomgo0x51df…458f
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$41.7K@ 96.2¢
randomgo0x51df…458f
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$41.9K@ 96.2¢
randomgo0x51df…458f
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$41.0K@ 96.2¢
randomgo0x51df…458f
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$38.7K@ 96.2¢
randomgo0x51df…458f
🐋—20 days ago
BUYNO$22.6K@ 96.2¢
randomgo0x51df…458f
🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$33.4K@ 96.1¢
llh0x8349…c99d
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$38.7K@ 96.0¢
llh0x8349…c99d
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$68.5K@ 96.4¢0xc97b…47e5🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$16.6K@ 96.3¢0xc97b…47e5🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$49.2K@ 96.2¢0xc97b…47e5🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.4K@ 96.0¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$15.9K@ 96.1¢
FranklinArma30x61c7…5ddb
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$38.4K@ 96.0¢
jjx19700x663b…2308
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.4K@ 96.1¢
zthunderfury0xc682…17bb
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$30.7K@ 96.0¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$15.2K@ 96.2¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$32.4K@ 96.2¢
faafd0x097d…e19b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$48.8K@ 96.0¢0xbadf…aef3🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$11.0K@ 96.2¢0xbadf…aef3🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$48.0K@ 96.0¢0xc97b…47e5🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$13.3K@ 95.9¢0x4a41…f4c4🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$15.7K@ 96.0¢0x4a41…f4c4🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$20.5K@ 96.3¢0x4a41…f4c4🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$43.9K@ 96.4¢0x4a41…f4c4🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xrcNo$13.9K
BUY VWAP 96.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.